Do You Trust Old Farmers or Scientists?

Johnny-on-the-Spot … by John Foster …

Why are we more interested in the winter outlooks than the other seasons?

I’m a weather geek and this time of year, folks are all concerned about how much snow and cold we’re going to experience from December through March.

You’ll hear some mumbles about spring storms and summer heat and when the leaves will turn in the fall, but winter “guesses” get more headlines.

This year, my two favorites, the National Weather Service (NWS ) and the Old Farmer’s Almanac (OFA) have radically different outlooks.

The Almanac says my world will be cold and snowy.

The NWS predicts somewhat milder and drier winter weather.

Now, while the Old Farmer’s Almanac doesn’t mention “El Nino”, the NWS is all over that like stink on a dog.

You see, “El Nino” diverts the jet stream in an uncommon path dominated by warmer and wetter Pacific air in our hemisphere.

“El Nino” (the “little boy”) and “La Nina” (the “little girl”) are opposite phases of ENSO (the El Nino Southern Oscillation).

That’s a temperature variation between the ocean and atmosphere over the east central tropical Pacific.

“El Nino” and “La Nina” aren’t always in action but “El Nino” occurs more frequently.

Historians point to the late 1890’s for the first scientific discussions of these weather terms but they’ve been around thousands of years, based on fossil studies.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been doing it’s weather outlooks since 1792.

A University of Illinois study says the long-range forecasts of the Old Farmers Almanac have been 52% accurate.

However, the almanac claims 80% accuracy with it’s annual outlooks for 18 U.S. regions.

Numerically, that’s a big difference.

While the NWS says it’s leaning toward a drier and milder winter, the OFA predicts the snowiest times will be from late December to mid January and again late January through mid February.

The OFA calls for cold weather late December through early January and another cold shot late January into mid February.

“Below average temperatures and lots of snow storms” is the forecast from the Almanac.

Now, the National Weather Service “does not project seasonal snowfall accumulation as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.”

The scientific community claims 5 day outlooks are 90% accurate while the figure drops to 80% over 7 days.

One of the other weather “wildcards” for us is Siberian snow cover.

Winter storm expert Judah Cohen says our weather will generally be milder if there’s less Siberian snow which keeps the “polar vortex” strong, holding the Arctic air near the north pole.

Cohen calls Siberia the “refrigerator for the northern hemisphere” and he’ll post his weather forecast for this winter in late November.

Sure.

Make me wait.

Seems to me we ought to get some of our Siberian buddies to e-mail us with snow depths they’re experiencing.

So, who do we believe?

TV meteorologists with their clickers and fancy-colored screens?

Woolly bear caterpillars?

The curvy and smiling “cumulobimbus” in her short skirt.

Persimmon seeds?

Weather forecasters with those big green screens they dance and point to the side of?

Rings around the moon?

I’m gonna rely on my weather rope.

When it’s moving… it’s windy.

White? Snowy.

Stiff? Cold.

Gone? Take shelter.