Suderman: Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Will be a ‘Net Positive’ for Commodities

On Wednesday, President Trump announced that he’s imposing reciprocal tariffs starting at 10 percent on all imports coming into the U.S. with more than 90 countries facing much higher tariff rates.

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, tells Hoosier Ag Today the move by President Trump will a positive one over the long-term.

“I think in the days ahead, we’re going to see a lot of headlines driving the market with some countries quickly coming to the table to negotiate down the tariffs, which will be seen as a positive, while others dig in their heels. I think the net will be a positive move,” says Suderman.

Even though there are concerns that China could cut off the U.S. already as a trading partner, Suderman says there’s far too much at stake for China to dig in their heels.

“I’m more encouraged now that we will see China coming to the table sooner, because the 54-percent tariffs on them,” he says. “Their economy—simply, they cannot stimulate their way out of that. That was a huge blow to them for 54-percent tariffs on the $450 billion worth of consumer goods that they want to sell to the United States. I think that will force them to the table sooner than what we would otherwise see.”

What advice does Suderman have for farmers as a result of Trump’s tariffs?

“We’re in a time of volatility, and headlines are driving prices,” he says. “We need to be defensive in our marketing. We don’t know what the next headline will be, so when we get opportunities, we need to take advantage of those opportunities. That’s likely to be the case for before some months to come.”

Even though corn and wheat futures weren’t impacted greatly by Trump’s tariff announcement, because Mexico and Canada were not among the countries listed by the White House on Wednesday as being hit with retaliatory tariffs. However, soybean futures took a hit on Thursday. The May contract fell more than 18 cents to close at $10.11 ½ because of the immediate uncertainty regarding China, one of the biggest buyers of U.S. soybeans.

In addition to the retaliatory tariffs, Trump announced 25 percent tariffs across the board for all automobiles and auto parts made outside of the U.S. So far, it’s uncertain whether farm machinery has also been included.

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