Highly variable weather across the Hoosier state today, as one front pushes off to the east and we gear up for another significant system to rise up out of the southwest. We think that most of the state today, at least from US 50 northward, will be dry, as clouds and sun mix it up. However, closer to the OH River, clouds hold firmer, and we actually cannot rule out some scattered lingering action, thanks to our approaching weekend event.
A strong low exits the central plains later today and overspreads the MO valley. Rains associated with this circulation will begin to push into SW Indiana in earnest overnight tonight through tomorrow. Models still are in some disagreement as to how far north the heaviest rains go, but we believe that most of the action from tonight through the weekend will be from I-70 southward, and the farther south you go, the higher rain totals can be. Rains can linger in some light and scattered form through midday Sunday. Rain totals from tonight through the weekend will be .25”-1.25” from I-70 southward, .05-.25” from I-70 to US 24, and north of US 24 – little to no rain.
We should be dry from Sunday afternoon on through Monday and Tuesday as clearing skies come in behind the weekend system. Temps may pull back a bit but will be normal to above to start the week. Clouds will start to build later Tuesday afternoon.
A quick moving front sweeps through Tuesday night through mid-morning Wednesday. This front has .25”-.66” rain potential with coverage at 80% of the state. This should be seen mostly as a nice, gentle rain…except for the fact that it may interrupt desires to be in the field. An almost immediate move back to sunshine for the balance of Wednesday will be in the cards.
24 hours late, we have a warm front lifting across the state that will trigger some light rains from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Rain totals look to be a few hundredths of an inch up to .25” with coverage at about 40%. The rains have the best chance north of I-70. Areas south of I-70 likely stay rain free. However, behind the warm front, we see strong south winds kick up for Friday that will promote some drying, but will likely be too strong for some type of fieldwork. We expect winds next Friday and Saturday to average 12-25mph out of the south at the least.
A strong cold front looks to move in to finish off the 10-day period next Sunday the 30th and it will roll on through the 1st of May. Rains with this front can still be strong…with potential of .25”-1.5” and coverage at 90%.
In the extended window, we still have two systems to watch, although we now think that the first system, around the 3rd into the 4th, will be relatively minor. It sweeps through quickly…likely 12 hours or less, and has rain totals of no more than .1”-.4”. Coverage will be around 70% of the state. The second system, farther out in the extended window, around the 5th into the 6th, has more moisture with it…rains of .25”-1”. However, currently, it looks like it may want to track more south…bringing rains to the OH River valley, but missing a large part of the state. Right now, we would put coverage at no better than about 35%.
There is no fall off in temps through the next two weeks. We see temps near to above normal, with no major cold. However, the active precipitation pattern likely keeps a lid on excessive heat as well, as temps for the most part average 2-8 degrees above normal into mid may.